Tuesday, June 23, 2015

MLB Prospect Values

Every year in the MLB, a star player is traded for a bunch of prospects that could be good. Nobody knows what could happen, the prospect could be a star or a bust. What's the chance that a first round pick could become a star? Let's investigate! All stats come from Baseball Reference .com.


Criteria: 

Bust: 

Hitter: 1 or less seasons of hitting an OPS+ (On-Base plus Slugging adjusted to players ballpark) above 120 (min: 500 Plate Appearances)

Starter: 1 or less seasons of E.R.A. under 4.00 (min: 24 games started)

Relief Pitcher: 1 or less seasons of E.R.A. under 3.00 (min: 60 Innings Pitched)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Average Player: 

Hitter: 2-3 seasons of hitting an OPS+ above 120 (min: 500 Plate Appearances) and/or 2-3 All-Star Selections and/or top 5 in MVP voting 

Starter: 2-3 seasons of an E.R.A. under 4.00 (min: 24 games started) and/or 2-3 All-Star Selections and/or top 5 in Cy Young voting 

Relief Pitcher: 2-3 seasons of an E.R.A. under 3.00 (min: 60 Innings Pitched) and/or 2-3 All-Star Selections and/or top 5 in MVP voting 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Star:

Hitter: 4+ seasons of hitting an OPS+ above 120 (min: 500 Plate Appearances) and/or MVP Award and/or 4+ All-Star Selections

Starter: 4+ seasons of E.R.A. under 4.00 (min: 24 games started) and/or Cy Young Award and/or 4+ All-Star Selections


Relief Pitcher: 4+ seasons of an E.R.A. under 3.00 (min: 60 Innings Pitched) and/or 4+ All-Star Selections

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------


2003 MLB Draft:



#1 Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Delmon Young OF - Bust


#2 Milwaukee Brewers: Rickie Weeks 2B - Average Player

#3 Detroit Tigers: Kyle Sleeth SP - Bust

#4 San Diego Padres: Tim Stauffer RP - Bust

#5 Kansas City Royals: Chris Lubanski OF - Bust

#6 Chicago Cubs: Ryan Harvey OF - Bust

#7 Baltimore Orioles: Nick Markakis OF - Average Player

#8 Pittsburgh Pirates: Paul Maholm SP - Average Player

#9 Texas Rangers: John Danks SP - Average Player

#10 Colorado Rockies: Ian Stewart 3B - Bust

#11 Cleveland Indians: Michael Aubrey 1B - Bust

#12 New York Mets: Lastings Milledge OF - Bust

#13 Toronto Blue Jays: Aaron Hill 2B/SS - Bust

#14 Cincinnati Reds: Ryan Wagner RP - Bust

#15 Chicago White Sox: Brian Anderson OF - Bust

#16 Florida Marlins: Jeff Allison SP - Bust

#17 Boston Red Sox: David Murphy OF - Bust

#18 Cleveland Indians (from Philadelphia Phillies): Brad Snyder OF - Bust

#19 Arizona Diamondbacks (from Seattle Mariners): Conor Jackson 1B -Bust

#20 Montreal Expos: Chad Cordero RP - Average Player

#21 Minnesota Twins: Matt Moses 3B - Bust

#22 San Francisco Giants (from Houston Astros): David Aardsma RP - Bust

#23 Los Angeles Angels: Brandon Wood 1B/SS/3B - Bust

#24 Los Angeles Dodgers: Chad Billingsley SP - Average Player

#25 Oakland Athletics: Brad Sullivan RP - Bust

#26 Oakland Athletics (from San Francisco Giants): Brian Snyder 3B - Bust

#27 New York Yankees: Eric Duncan 3B - Bust

#28 St. Louis Cardinals: Daric Barton 1B - Bust

#29 Arizona Diamondbacks: Carlos Quentin OF - Average Player

#30 Kansas City Royals (from Atlanta Braves): Mitch Maier OF -  Bust


Bust: 77%

Average Player: 23%

Star: 0%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


2004 MLB Draft: 


#1 San Diego Padres: Matt Bush SS/RP - Bust

#2 Detroit Tigers: Justin Verlander SP - Star 

#3 New York Mets: Philip Humber SP - Bust

#4 Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Jeff Niemann SP - Bust

#5 Milwaukee Brewers: Mark Rogers SP - Bust

#6 Cleveland Indians: Jeremy Sowers SP - Bust

#7 Cincinnati Reds: Homer Bailey SP -  Average Player

#8 Baltimore Orioles: Wade Townsend SP/RP - Bust

#9 Colorado Rockies: Chris Nelson 2B/SS/3B - Bust

#10 Texas Rangers: Thomas Diamond RP - Bust

#11 Pittsburgh Pirates: Neil Walker 2B - Bust

#12 Los Angeles Angels: Jered Weaver SP - Star

#13 Montreal Expos: Bill Bray RP - Bust

#14 Kansas City Royals: Billy Butler 1B/DH - Star

#15 Arizona Diamondbacks: Stephen Drew SS -  Bust

#16 Toronto Blue Jays: David Purcey RP - Bust

#17 Los Angeles Dodgers: Scott Elbert RP - Bust

#18 Chicago White Sox: Josh Fields 1B/3B/OF - Bust

#19 St. Louis Cardinals: Chris Lambert RP - Bust

#20 Minnesota Twins: Trevor Plouffe SS/3B/OF - Bust

#21 Philadelphia Phillies: Greg Golson OF - Bust

#22 Minnesota Twins (from Seattle Mariners): Glen Perkins RP - Average Player

#23 New York Yankees (from Houston Astros): Phil Hughes SP - Bust

#24 Oakland Athletics (from Boston Red Sox): Landon Powell C/1B - Bust

#25 Minnesota Twins (from Chicago Cubs): Kyle Waldrop RP - Bust

#26 Oakland Athletics: Richie Robnett OF - Bust

#27 Florida Marlins: Taylor Tankersley RP - Bust

#28 Los Angeles Dodgers (from New York Yankees): Blake DeWitt 2B/3B - Bust

#29 Kansas City Royals (San Francisco Giants): Matt Campbell SP - Bust

#30 Texas Rangers (from Atlanta Braves): Eric Hurley SP - Bust


Bust: 83%

Average Player: 7%

Star: 10%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


2005 MLB Draft:


#1 Arizona Diamondbacks: Justin Upton OF - Star

#2 Kansas City Royals: Alex Gordon 1B/3B/OF - Average Player

#3 Seattle Mariners: Jeff Clement C/1B - Bust

#4 Washington Nationals: Ryan Zimmerman - Star

#5 Milwaukee Brewers: Ryan Braun 3B/OF - Star

#6 Toronto Blue Jays: Ricky Romero SP - Average Player

#7 Colorado Rockies: Troy Tulowitzki SS - Star

#8 Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Wade Townsend SP - Bust

#9 New York Mets: Mike Pelfrey SP - Average Player

#10 Detroit Tigers: Cameron Maybin OF - Bust

#11 Pittsburgh Pirates: Andrew McCutchen - Star

#12 Cincinnati Reds: Jay Bruce OF - Average Player

#13 Baltimore Orioles: Brandon Snyder 1B/3B - Bust

#14 Cleveland Indians: Trevor Crowe OF - Bust

#15 Chicago White Sox: Lance Broadway RP - Bust

#16 Florida Marlins: Chris Volstad SP - Bust

#17 New York Yankees (from Philadelphia Phillies): C.J. Henry SS/3B/OF - Bust

#18 San Diego Padres: Cesar Carrillo SP - Bust

#19 Texas Rangers: John Mayberry Jr. 1B/OF - Bust

#20 Chicago Cubs: Mark Pawelek RP - Bust

#21 Oakland Athletics: Cliff Pennington - Bust

#22 Florida Marlins (from San Francisco Giants) : Aaron Thompson RP - Bust

#23 Boston Red Sox (from Los Angeles Angels) : Jacoby Ellsbury OF - Average Player

#24 Houston Astros: Brian Bogusevic OF - Bust

#25 Minnesota Twins: Matt Garza SP - Star

#26 Boston Red Sox (from Los Angeles Dodgers): Craig Hansen - Bust

#27 Atlanta Braves: Joey Devine RP - Bust

#28 St. Louis Cardinals (from Boston Red Sox): Colby Rasmus - Bust

#29 Florida Marlins (St. Louis Cardinals): Jacob Marceaux RP - Bust

#30 St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler Greene 2B/SS/3B -  Bust


Bust: 63%

Average Player: 17%

Star: 20%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2006 MLB Draft


#1 Kansas City Royals: Luke Hochevar SP - Bust

#2 Colorado Rockies: Greg Reynolds SP - Bust

#3 Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Evan Longoria 3B - Star

#4 Pittsburgh Pirates: Brad Lincoln RP - Bust

#5 Seattle Mariners: Brandon Morrow SP -  Bust

#6 Detroit Tigers: Andrew Miller RP - Bust

#7 Los Angeles Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw - Star

#8 Cincinnati Reds: Drew Stubbs OF - Bust

#9 Baltimore Orioles: Billy Rowell 1B/3B/OF - Bust

#10 San Francisco Giants: Tim Lincecum - Star

#11 Arizona Diamondbacks: Max Scherzer SP - Star

#12 Texas Rangers: Kasey Kiker SP - Bust

#13 Chicago Cubs: Tyler Colvin OF - Bust

#14 Toronto Blue Jays: Travis Snider OF/DH - Bust

#15 Washington Nationals: Chris Marrero 1B - Bust

#16 Milwaukee Brewers: Jeremy Jeffress RP - Bust

#17 San Diego Padres: Matt Antonelli 2B - Bust

#18 Philadelphia Phillies (from New York Mets): Kyle Drabek SP - Bust

#19 Florida Marlins: Brett Sinkbeil RP - Bust

#20 Minnesota Twins: Chris Parmelee OF/1B - Bust

#21 New York Yankees (from Philadelphia Phillies): Ian Kennedy SP - Average Player

#22 Washington Nationals (from Oakland Athletics): Colton Willems SP - Bust

#23 Houston Astros: Maxwell Sapp C - Bust

#24 Atlanta Braves: Cody Johnson OF - Bust

#25 Los Angeles Angels (from Cleveland Indians): Hank Conger C - Bust

#26 Los Angeles Dodgers (from Los Angeles Angels): Bryan Morris RP - Bust

#27 Boston Red Sox: Jason Place OF - Bust

#28 Boston Red Sox (from New York Yankees): Daniel Bard RP - Bust

#29 Chicago White Sox: Kyle McCulloch SP - Bust

#30 St. Louis Cardinals: Adam Ottavino RP - Bust


Bust: 83%

Average Player: 3%

Star: 13%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2007 MLB Draft

#1 Tampa Bay Devil Rays: David Price SP - Star

#2 Kansas City Royals: Mike Moustakas 3B - Bust

#3 Chicago Cubs: Josh Vitters 3B - Bust

#4 Pittsburgh Pirates: Daniel Moskos RP - Bust

#5 Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters C - Average Player

#6 Washington Nationals: Ross Detwiler SP - Bust

#7 Milwaukee Brewers: Matt Laporta OF/1B - Bust

#8 Colorado Rockies: Casey Weathers RP - Bust

#9 Arizona Diamondbacks: Jarrod Parker SP - Average Player

#10 San Francisco Giants: Madison Bumgarner SP - Star

#11 Seattle Mariners: Phillippe Aumont RP - Bust

#12 Florida Marlins: Matt Dominguez 3B - Bust

#13 Cleveland Indians: Beau Mills 1B/3B - Bust

#14 Atlanta Braves: Jason Heyward OF - Bust

#15 Cincinnati Reds: Devin Mesoraco C - Bust

#16 Toronto Blue Jays (from Texas Rangers): Kevin Ahrens 1B/3B - Bust

#17 Texas Rangers (from Houston Astros): Blake Beavan SP - Bust

#18 St. Louis Cardinals: Pete Kozma 2B/SS - Bust

#19 Philadelphia Phillies: Joe Savery RP - Bust

#20 Los Angeles Dodgers (from Boston Red Sox): Chris Withrow RP - Bust

#21 Toronto Blue Jays: J.P. Arencibia C/1B - Bust

#22 San Francisco Giants (from Los Angeles Dodgers): Tim Alderson RP - Bust

#23 San Diego Padres: Nick Schmidt SP - Bust

#24 Texas Rangers (from Los Angeles Angels): Michael Main SP/OF - Bust

#25 Chicago White Sox: Aaron Poreda RP - Bust

#26 Oakland Athletics: James Simmons SP - Bust

#27 Detroit Tigers: Rick Porcello SP - Average Player

#28 Minnesota Twins: Ben Revere OF - Bust

#29 San Francisco Giants (from New York Mets): Wendell Fairley OF - Bust

#30 New York Yankees: Andrew Brackman RP - Bust


Bust: 83%

Average Player: 10%

Star: 7%


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Totals:


Bust: 78%

Average Player: 12%

Star: 10%





No comments:

Post a Comment